With so much time being spent on polls and such on the 2008 Primary, Electoral-Votes.com decided to start a running Electoral Vote map. The first map is a Barack Obama vs. John McCain, and the other is Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain. He will be updating the maps daily, and here’s what he has to say about them:
Starting today and until we have a Democratic nominee, two maps will be available for the general election, one for Obama-McCain and one for Clinton-McCain. Links to them will be given below the main map. Please keep in mind that in politics, a week is a long time and 7 months is forever. If you doubt this, check out the electoral college graph for 2004. Notice that Kerry was ahead by 125-150 electoral votes all summer, until the Swift Boat ad started, which precipitated a huge decline from which he never recovered. This graph will be run again this year, but we need a pair of nominees first.
Nevertheless, from a quick inspection of the Obama-McCain and Clinton-McCain maps you can see graphically what you probably already knew. Hillary Clinton is a traditional Democrat and does well in places Democrats usually do well in. She also does well in Florida due to the large number of New York snowbirds who live there in the winter. If she is the nominee, you are going to see a monumental traffic jam Nov. 1 all up and down the East Coast as hundreds of thousands of snowbirds drive down to Florida in time to vote there Nov. 4. Of course, McCain can neutralize her by picking popular Florida governor Charlie Crist as his running mate.
Clinton also does well in the rust belt, but if the economy is in deep doo doo come November, any Democrat can win those states by just talking jobs jobs jobs instead of tax cuts. Obama’s strength is in the red states. He might be able to win Colorado (which has been trending blue anyway) and Nevada. No matter what the map shows, he’s not going to win North Dakota unless buffalos get the vote real quick. But he could easily force McCain to spend real money in states that ought to be no-brainers, like Texas (SurveyUSA’s poll shows McCain ahead of Obama there only 47% to 46%). In short, Clinton’s slogan will be “Kerry + Florida whereas Obama will be playing Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy.
So, with all that… what do the current numbers show? Let’s take a look. First up, Obama/McCain:
Electoral Votes: Obama 231 — McCain 292 — Ties 15
Ouch. Hello President McCain as of today’s numbers. Now it’s on to Clinton/McCain:
Electoral Votes: Clinton 268 — McCain 246 — Ties 24
Would you look at that? Hello Mrs. President as of today’s numbers. Interesting! It’ll be neat to see how these maps change over the course of the next few months!
