Now ends the voting portion of our show, with South Dakota and Montana, we are left months away from the Democratic National Convention with Barack Obama claiming the “Projected Nominee” status based on his collection of Super Delegates. South Dakota went to Clinton, while Montana went to Obama. Neither he, nor Hillary Clinton were able to get the Nominee status without them and the fun part of the game, is that they can change their mind whenever they want.
So where are we left? Well, Barack Obama says he is the nominee based upon his reaching the 2,118 delegates needed to secure the nomination. What about Hillary Clinton? She claims she’s not going anywhere as she has the Popular Vote and the fact that the Super Delegates (which helped Obama get to the 2,118 delegates) can change their mind at any point until the Convention.
For those wanting to see… here is a final map of the states won by Obama (Purple) and Clinton (Pink) with Florida & Michigan going to Clinton:
Will Hillary Clinton drop out “officially” in the coming weeks? Will the “Whitey” tape appear and upset Obama’s chances? Will Hillary attempt to become Barack’s VP? Many questions still remain, so stay tuned!
The short answer is “no”. Well, not in this universe, but that seems only to be because of the way Democrats have “split” the delegates, rather than have the “winner-take-all” system of the Republicans. A lot of people probably assume that Obama would be still winning had the Democrats used that system, but they’d be wrong. According to Electoral Vote, it looks like the only way Hillary isn’t currently winning is due to the fact that there isn’t a “winner-take-all” system in place. To quote the data:
Quite a few people have asked what would have happened if the Democrats had used a statewide winner-take-all rule. In other words, suppose the statewide winner got all the delegates. Where would be be now? Here is the answer. The calculation assumes Clinton won Nevada and Texas. She got more votes in Nevada but fewer delegates (by 1). She also won the popular vote in the Texas primary.
Hillary Clinton would have 1726 delegates to Barack Obama’s 1533. The reason the Democrats don’t have a winner-take-all rule is because they are Democrats. They don’t consider it fair that the birthday boy or girl gets to eat the whole cake. You have to share it with your friends. Republicans have a different world model. You either win or you lose. If you win you get to take all the marbles home. If you lose, you get no marbles. Try harder next time. If the Democrats had employed winner take all but for only 80% of the delegates leaving 20% for the PLEOs, the score now would be Clinton 1381, Obama 1226.
So there you have it… Obama should be counting his lucky stars that the Democrats don’t have a winner-take-all rule. The other interesting thing about this number is that Florida and Michigan aren’t included, so it shows Hillary would be ahead even without the help of those two states. I wonder if this will change anyone’s opinion on the whole race, or will maybe just be seen as an interesting fact.