FlishFun.com

I know there is tons of talk about “Electability” when it comes to the current Democratic Nominees and much talk about the Electoral Votes. The main issue seems to be, will their Primary wins translate into Electoral Vote wins? According to the latest Clinton/McCain and Obama/McCain charts, they’re not doing so well in the Electoral Vote area. So, who wants to see some maps?! I know I do! The starting map image was borrowed from Electoral-Vote.com, and I gathered the data and colored them in.

Let’s start with the Wins (and current predicted wins) for Obama/Clinton:

The biggest thing you can see here is that Obama rules the Midwest and South East, while the South West and North East go mainly to Clinton. Sure, that’s a generalization, as there are a few states that don’t fit the mold (Florida, Washington, Maine), but it’s a good sum up of their strengths. So, with seeing that map, most people say that Obama is great at winning Red States, while Clinton can easily pick up the “standard” Blue States. Is this really the case? Let’s go back a few elections and see which (if any) States are really “red” or “blue”. Read the rest of this entry →

I was browsing the web last night when I came across the new Republican National Convention logo:

Wow… what a logo that is. Wanna see the Democratic National Convention logo? Check it:

I don’t think those mountains stand a chance against that elephant. In fact, here’s an awesome mini-article about the current RNC Logo (The Angry Elephant):

The elephant—a symbol of the Republican Party dating back to Thomas Nast’s cartoon in Harper’s Weekly in 1874—has long been thought to be both “strong and dignified.” While these words have not always described the Grand Old Party itself, they do well apply to the old and familiar elephant symbol, with its simple red and blue graphic forms and three patriotic stars. The new Republican National Convention logo has pushed the immobile elephant in a less cute direction, now looking something like Babar’s evil and dumb cousin who ate wild mushrooms; it’s breaking free of the circus ring in order to bludgeon the crowd. Simplicity has been cast aside with the new agressive stripes, flailing limbs, a curly trunk, and pointy tusks. A terrifyingly patriotic and angry eye stares at the indoctrinated far right, and threatens the majority of the United States (also the world) with a circus of policies we can’t even imagine. Just like the party it symbolizes—the symbol is both unwieldy and frightening—”strong and dignified” no more.

This is what the terror looks like up close, right before you get crushed.

(note: this was written by a hippie, pinky, east-coast, big-government liberal)

Hilarious and scary all at the same time.

The short answer is “no”. Well, not in this universe, but that seems only to be because of the way Democrats have “split” the delegates, rather than have the “winner-take-all” system of the Republicans. A lot of people probably assume that Obama would be still winning had the Democrats used that system, but they’d be wrong. According to Electoral Vote, it looks like the only way Hillary isn’t currently winning is due to the fact that there isn’t a “winner-take-all” system in place. To quote the data:

Quite a few people have asked what would have happened if the Democrats had used a statewide winner-take-all rule. In other words, suppose the statewide winner got all the delegates. Where would be be now? Here is the answer. The calculation assumes Clinton won Nevada and Texas. She got more votes in Nevada but fewer delegates (by 1). She also won the popular vote in the Texas primary.

Hillary Clinton would have 1726 delegates to Barack Obama’s 1533. The reason the Democrats don’t have a winner-take-all rule is because they are Democrats. They don’t consider it fair that the birthday boy or girl gets to eat the whole cake. You have to share it with your friends. Republicans have a different world model. You either win or you lose. If you win you get to take all the marbles home. If you lose, you get no marbles. Try harder next time. If the Democrats had employed winner take all but for only 80% of the delegates leaving 20% for the PLEOs, the score now would be Clinton 1381, Obama 1226.

So there you have it… Obama should be counting his lucky stars that the Democrats don’t have a winner-take-all rule. The other interesting thing about this number is that Florida and Michigan aren’t included, so it shows Hillary would be ahead even without the help of those two states. I wonder if this will change anyone’s opinion on the whole race, or will maybe just be seen as an interesting fact.

Wow, that was the craziest thing ever. The caucus was set to start at 12:00, so Jess and I arrived at 10:30 so we weren’t late. We registered early and sat down. We were told they were estimating about 800 people. Around 11:30 they probably already had over 1000 people inside and were starting to panic. Apparently traffic was backed up and there were lines out the door. At 12:00 we were told to move from the cafeteria to the main entry way as they were running out of room. At 1:00 they announced they’d be running late because they were still letting in the lines of people.

By 1:30 we were told to go into the gym, and it was instantly packed… with just 3 districts! There were still people in other areas. The current estimate is around 3000 people showed up for the caucus. As far as our districts went, we seemed about evenly split down the Clinton/Obama border (I couldn’t tell who had more supporters, seemed pretty even… not a sweep for either candidate), not really seeing that many Undecided voters.

We were finally able to cast our ballots (in a sense) and get out of there by 2:30. It was a madhouse. As we were leaving we heard other districts just starting. I’d almost assume people are still there. Even though it was a complete madhouse, I’m glad I went. I got to talk to a few fellow Hillary Clinton supporters, as well as a few Barack Obama supporters and they all were very nice and articulate on why they liked their candidate. Amazingly all said they’d support either candidate if they won, and they hoped whichever got the nomination would take the advice from the other. I was surprised at how civil it was!

Now, I didn’t bring my camera because we weren’t sure if they’d allow it, so all I have are some cell phone shots, but they get the point across that there were plenty of Clinton supporters at the Sarpy County Caucus:

Now we sit and wait for the results. The Omaha Channel is keeping track with live updates here, and I’m sure CNN will as well as the day goes on. Now it’s time for me to go back to redesigning this site! I’ve got quite a start and I can’t wait to see it in action! Until next time, folks!

UPDATE: Seems they estimated for less than 500 and had over 6000 (from KMTV News):

A sea of Nebraska Democrats packed into the gym at Papillion La Vista South High School. Organizers only expected about 500 people at this caucus site . The county chairman says 6,000 showed up.